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GameStop (GME) Part II - Stock Synthesis, Robinhood, and Market Volatility

by Alex Mason | Companies, Episodes

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Description

  • GameStop has made some waves in recent weeks. Last week we talked about the general business, including its history and overall business models and financials. Today we wrap up our analysis of the business, discuss what a short squeeze is, and talk about the recent market volatility surrounding the stock.

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Transcripts:

  • Alex Mason: Today on the Stock Stories podcast, we're going to continue our conversation about GameStop. Last week, we talked about just an overall history of the business, as well as the business in the present day. And looking at some of the financials today, we're going to wrap up our conversation about the business itself and kind of synthesize the information that we talked about last week.
  • [00:00:21] And then I'll also spend some time talking about some of the recent market volatility and some of my thoughts on that. I'm Alex Mason, host of Stock Stories. This is the podcast where we decode investing principles by analyzing the business behind the stock, as well as learning about mental models in order to help you become a better investor.
  • [00:00:44] You ready? Let's go.
  • [00:01:11] Intro Music: all
  • [00:01:12] Alex Mason: right. Welcome. Welcome to the show. This is the Stock Stories podcast, the place where we decode the business behind the stock in order to learn principles that will help us become better investors. Notice what I said there it's the principles behind what we're learning that are actually going to make us better.
  • [00:01:36] It's not buy this. Don't buy that, sell this. Don't sell that. Check out this asset class over here, check out crypto, check out real estate, check out whatever. No, it's not about that. It's about the principles of investing that make you, and I better every single day investing is a skillset and it's a skillset that we build over time.
  • [00:02:00] You know, sometimes people. Talk about investing as if it's always just buying the right product. Like you're just going to the store and buying a piece of clothing or buying some food or something. Investing is not that investing is a path that you walk down and yeah, there are milestone markers along the way.
  • [00:02:20] And yes, there's an ultimate destination, which is financial freedom and financial independence, but investing itself is a process. And I just wanted to take a moment to remind you of that. As you're walking down this journey with me because there's a lot of distractions out there along the road. There's a lot of distractions.
  • [00:02:39] And frankly, I think that GameStop is one of those distractions. And we'll get into that in just a few minutes here, but keep your eyes on the prize. Okay. Keep your eyes on the prize. As far as your portfolio, the returns, we're trying to generate what that is going to mean for you and your life and your family.
  • [00:02:59] If you become a better investor, what does that mean to you? Focus on the why. And as we focus on that, why we can clarify our principles, clarify our mission and understand that we don't need to get distracted. We don't need to lose focus, but rather we can learn little by little day by day and become better.
  • [00:03:25] So philosophical notes aside, let's go ahead and let us get into the rest of the game. Stop episode.
  • [00:03:46] Okay. So remember, last week we talked about the business itself. We learned about GameStops history. Selling software then moving on to focus on video game sales, specifically how its business is structured. Now they sell hardware and software. They also have collectibles and then they have this retail subsidiary that does Apple computer repairs, which I think is kind of interesting, but that's basically the business.
  • [00:04:15] And we've looked at the numbers and we know that GameStop hasn't been doing well lately. They really, they really have kind of fallen off the Mark. And let's talk about why that is. So GameStop had its glory days back when video game sales were really booming and physical stores were the only way to get merchandise.
  • [00:04:38] So remember back in the day, if you wanted to get a video game, You really just, you had to go to the store. There was no other option. So that was the mechanism, the mechanism to connect game manufacturers with gamers. And now that's just not the case. And the company has moved into selling things online, selling things digitally, but even with their digital offerings and their diversification into collectibles and the international presence of their business.
  • [00:05:12] To me, looking at the numbers and looking at the story, that's just not enough. So one metric that we can point to that alone is a huge red flag. Is that their same store sales? Fell over 20% in 2019. Now keep in mind. This is before the Corona virus pandemic decimated retail sales, just generally speaking.
  • [00:05:37] So to me, this is not exactly a recession proof business. Now, as the internet has gotten bigger, it's gotten faster and just better overall. I just see less of a need for middlemen like GameStop to even exist in the marketplace. So let's consider just an average customer. Say a 35 year old gamer living in Seattle.
  • [00:05:59] They want to buy a new game. Now when a new PlayStation game comes out, if they can get it from their home by directly downloading it from Sony, they're going to do that. They're just going to use their console because their console is a computer that is connected to the internet. They're not going to drive across town, browse through titles in a physical store and buy it there.
  • [00:06:18] It just makes no sense to me from a convenience perspective. And one thing that I think about when studying GameStop is it's parallels with another business of yesteryear called radio shack. Now management, I think, has been taking. A radio shack approach with their capital allocation. Now, if you're not familiar with this company that I'm mentioning, there was this retail business that existed decades ago called radio shack.
  • [00:06:48] And they used to be in malls everywhere. They sold electronic goods, and they're not too dissimilar from GameStop as far as their business model. Now over time, the fundamentals of the business eroded because they just didn't adjust quickly enough to e-commerce. And then not only that they neglected who was once their core customer, which.
  • [00:07:10] At the time it was these do it yourselfer electronic enthusiasts type people, because you could go into radio shack and you could buy little specialty batteries or antennas, or all sorts of little devices for electronics. And they kind of alienated that consumer based on the way that their business was moving.
  • [00:07:29] They wanted to sell. Cell phone plans and really start pushing that kind of a thing. So they kind of lost their way. And not only that, but management decided to buy back lots of their own stock when their source of revenue was declining. So want to point this out because what I always talk about on this show is when we're looking at a business it's so important to look at the source of the return.
  • [00:07:56] What is the source. What is, what is the engine that keeps this whole thing going, well, you need top line revenue. And that revenue has to come from customers. Somebody has to pay you money. Otherwise you don't have a business. Right. And so instead of addressing the root cause of the problem, Radio shack decided we're going to opt for financial engineering because we're going to make analysts on wall street happy, and we're going to buy back lots of our stock in order to try to prop up the stock price.
  • [00:08:31] And. They opted to use their capital for that. Instead of investing in research and development, investing in market research studies to figure out where the consumer was going, investing in, e-commerce investing in getting to know their primary customers better. These are the things that radio shack didn't do.
  • [00:08:53] Now, why do I bring this up is because I see similar trends with GameStop. Now, now they cut their dividend recently. And that makes sense because their business, I think is in deep trouble and buying back stock at 8%. Annually is great. If your sales, your income, your market share are increasing, but that's not what's going on here.
  • [00:09:18] This is basically financial engineering to make earnings per share numbers, not look super bad, just kind of bad. And ultimately the business model here, it's fraught with risk and. In order for me to really even consider a stock like this in its present form, as I'm analyzing it. Now, I would need a deep, deep, deep discount on the shares in order to even be interested.
  • [00:09:46] So the stock is trading right now around $50 per share somewhere around there as I record this. And I'll just be straight up with you. I don't think. It's the kind of company worth investing in frankly not for the long-term anyway. Now sometimes situations like this do get better. Sometimes there are turnaround stories.
  • [00:10:06] If they changed their business model in a radical way, or have some other asset or they could have a competitive advantage that I'm not seeing, maybe they do. Maybe it's a turnaround stock. I don't know, but the risks here look really great and I won't consider it right now for that reason. So when something fundamentally shifts in the marketplace, And the main way that you make money as a business is quickly, quickly being taken away.
  • [00:10:33] I mean, you've got retail in general is just struggling in many ways. Not all retail is struggling. I want to be clear about that, but a lot of retail businesses are struggling before and during this pandemic, but you also have the fact that. Gamers. I feel like gamers tend to be just more tech savvy people in general.
  • [00:10:58] And when you can get something from the internet directly, then you don't need the physical store. So I don't know exactly how well GameStop is doing this on the e-commerce side with their software side, but just looking at the numbers. That are presented to me in the annual report. I can see that whatever they're doing just isn't working because their sales are down, their profits are down, their cash flows down.
  • [00:11:26] So for that reason, I don't even think it's really worth going into a deeper understand if, if they're really trying to recover here. But that's just me. So those are my thoughts on GameStop the business. And that's kind of how I think about it. Now I want to take some time in this episode to talk about the stock itself, to talk about what's been going on.
  • [00:11:54] Did you see what happened a few weeks ago? Did you see how the entire financial community, all of a sudden started paying attention to this slowly declining specialty retailer? I mean, GameStop, when I started taking a look at it and I got into it, I was thinking, wow, this is really, this is not. Really even close to the same level of quality of business that I typically research that I typically talk about on this show, frankly, it's, it's kind of like this fallen, this fallen retailer.
  • [00:12:26] And I do believe that GameStop actually used to be in the S&P 500, but it definitely is not now it's since fallen out of the index and that's because of its performance of the past few years. Now, just to frame the situation for you, if you're unfamiliar with. What's been going on. There's a group of people on Reddit.
  • [00:12:45] And if you don't know what that is, it's, it's a website kind of like a social media website and under the wall street bets, subreddit, there are some people who decided that they wanted to orchestrate. What's known as a short squeeze. So, let me explain what that means. First of all, what is a short people who run head's funds and mutual funds, they sometimes short a stock, and that means that they're betting that the stock will decline in price as opposed to increasing in price.
  • [00:13:18] Now how did they do this? Like, how do you actually do that? Because if you're, if you believe a stock is going to rise in price, you just buy it and then it goes up and then you sell it for more than what you bought it for. Right. That's pretty easy to understand. But what about shorting? How do you sell it first and then buy it back?
  • [00:13:36] It's a little bit of a weird concept if you've never done it before, but the way that they do this is they borrow the shares from the broker who sells them. And then what they do is they wait for the stock to fall in price and then they'll buy those shares back at a lower price and give the shares back to the broker.
  • [00:13:57] So you can see that if you do this successfully, You'll keep the difference between the price that the stock was sold at initially, and then the price that it was bought at later. So it's something that individual investors like you and I can do as well. It's not just confined to hedge funds and institutional money.
  • [00:14:17] You and I can short stocks, but it's more of an advanced investing strategy, which is why you usually won't hear a lot of people talk about it just in daily life, just because it's, it's not a typical operation for an individual investor to do. But let's look at the other side of this. What happens when the short doesn't work?
  • [00:14:38] What happens if the price goes up? This is one of the things that's really risky about shorting. If you haven't covered your position well, or you don't have some type of a hedge in place is a stock on the downtrend. It can only go to zero, right? But on the uptrend, a stock, theoretically, anyway, can go to infinity.
  • [00:15:01] Right. So if you had this huge spike in price and you're shorting it, that you're going to lose a lot of money very quickly. And that's exactly what's going on here. That's what is called a short squeeze. That is the people who bet that the stock would go down. They get squeezed into their position because they must eventually
  • [00:15:21] and must eventually return their shares back to the broker? They borrowed them, but they're in a bad spot because their position is in the red. So when the wall street bets investors coordinate it to buy GameStop stock, it began to trigger a lot of these short sellers to start covering their positions and buy it as well, because they were afraid that the price was going to keep shooting up.
  • [00:15:44] And they don't want to lose money, right? So they're going to buy the stock and satisfy that debt of shares basically. But what happens when you buy stock, you create demand for the stock. You are signaling to the market that this stock is worth. What you're paying for it. Even if it's not intrinsically, but you're signaling to the market that that's, what's worth through the act of buying.
  • [00:16:11] So with this massive amount of money now flowing into the stock instead of out of it, the price increased significantly. And what happened is within days, the price of GameStop stock peaked at 30 times what it was trading at prior to the squeeze 30 times. Now, not only this, but the popular investing app, Robin hood, as well as other brokers, they actually seized buying and selling of the stock on their platform.
  • [00:16:43] So we got so bad as far as volatility, that all of these broker brokers decided like, Hey, you can't trade this anymore. You just can't trade it. So that includes broker it's like interactive brokers, TD Ameritrade, Schwab, We Bull, and then of course, Robin hood. So after the price reached these unreasonable highs, the market eventually self-corrected and then the buying momentum died down and the price of the stock subsequently crashed.
  • [00:17:14] So right now, as I mentioned, the stocks trading at around somewhere around $50 or so per share though, it's still far higher than it was prior to the squeeze, which was just around $17 a share somewhere around there, around the beginning of the year. So, what can we learn from this? What are the lessons?
  • [00:17:35] Now we see news every day in the stock market in some form or another, but what do we actually do with it? What can we learn here? So the first thing that I want you to learn, if you don't already know this lesson, is that going short, a stock can be risky if you don't have a hedge in place. And. That just goes to show you like all these institutional investors, they were shorting a stock and then.
  • [00:18:02] The stock basically went viral on the internet. You started having these memes pop up about GameStop and the price shoots up. It actually triggered the price to go up. And so if you're short and you're not well covered in your position, if you don't have some sort of a way out, then that's called a naked short, you're basically like naked with your, with your stock.
  • [00:18:27] Position because you don't have anything covering you. If things go wrong. So so shorting a stock, it can definitely be profitable. That's a whole nother discussion, but if you do it, you gotta know your risks. You gotta be able to manage your risk. And this is definitely not something you should do as a beginner investor.
  • [00:18:47] If you are just getting started with investing and you're listening to this. Please don't short a stock. Don't do it yet until you have a little bit more experience because it's just a more nuanced operation and it requires solid risk management skills. So just a disclaimer for you out there. If you're new to the market, please don't short stocks yet.
  • [00:19:10] Another lesson is that. The stock market, which we have to remember what it is, right? It's an auction mechanism for buyers and sellers. It can wildly fluctuate at any given time based upon the buying or selling demand. So just be, we shouldn't forget what the stock market is, right? This is buyers and sellers, and you can walk into, I don't know, an example let's say that you own a collectible and.
  • [00:19:39] It's not worth that much today. Maybe it's worth a hundred dollars, but say, say it's like an autograph, a baseball or something like that. Now let's say that the player dies well, the next day, the demand for that autographed baseball is probably going to shoot up, right? Just because people are thinking about that person, they just passed away.
  • [00:20:03] They want to own something related to that person. And so that autographed baseball that you own automatically shoots up in price, maybe it went from a hundred dollars to a thousand dollars overnight. Well, the stock market is very similar. You don't necessarily have to go from. A hundred dollars to $200 to $300 to 400 on the way up to a thousand, it can just jump from a hundred to a thousand based on the supply and demand relationship.
  • [00:20:30] So we shouldn't forget that the stock market by its very nature is a volatile place. Another lesson is that coordinated efforts from retail investors. On these highly shorter positions in the market, they can actually make a difference in the market price of that stock. And I believe that leverage and the way that algorithms work have a lot to do with this, if certain.
  • [00:20:56] Algorithms see that there's a lot of buying activity on a certain stock. Then a lot of them I'm just guessing here, but I would imagine a lot of them just want to follow the trend. So they're going to initiate a buy order too. And when that happens, another algorithm is going to see that and say, Oh, I'm going to put in another buy order too.
  • [00:21:13] And then before you know it, you have these massive flows of money compounding upon itself to create a very, very strong price movement in a very short period of time. Another note, remember that your broker is ultimately who is between you and your ability to buy or sell shares
  • [00:21:41] So your broker is being hired by you to execute orders, but they can't always do that effectively when there is significant volatility in the market. So for example, when there is. Crazy levels of volatility in the market. Like there was in March of 2020, the New York stock exchange. They actually shut down temporarily.
  • [00:22:02] Sometimes these breaks in the market are only 15 minutes or so maybe 30 minutes where nobody gets to trade, but. It's guard rails like this that are put in place in order to help prevent an all-out crash. Now, when I first heard about the fact that multiple brokers were not allowing trading of certain securities, like game stop, like AMC initially, like I was very upset.
  • [00:22:28] Like, how dare you tell me that I can't buy or sell a stock when I want to buy it or sell it. Right. Like, That just seems ridiculous to me, it's just restricting the free market, but you know, I'm still bothered about it to be honest, but now I'm kind of seeing that there are other aspects of the financial system at play that should be considered here.
  • [00:22:51] I was doing some research on it, just, I didn't want to just jump to conclusions and just be mad. You know, you see a lot about that. A lot of, a lot of that on the internet. Anyway, I didn't want to be like that. I wanted to, you know, use my mental models and just try to think rationally. Right? So. I'm gathering information.
  • [00:23:08] And one thing that I learned is that for example, there are certain financial institutions that are part of the system called clearing houses. Now clearing houses have to work with brokerages in order to sell trades. That's what they do. So you put in your order with the broker, the broker takes your money.
  • [00:23:26] The money goes to the clearing house and it settles basically it might take a couple of days to settle and then once it settles the broker, then. Gives you the shares, something like that. I'm maybe someone might correct me on the details of that whole scenario. Cause I'm kind of a newbie with learning about that aspect of the process.
  • [00:23:48] But that's what I understand the general system to be the clearing house works with the broker to basically help the broker or either the buying or selling party, not be fully at risk during a transaction. Because when money is moving and lots of it is moving and it's moving very quickly, the brokers, they don't want to be fully liable if something happens.
  • [00:24:14] And for some reason, shares are technically sold on one end, but they weren't bought on the other or vice versa. So that's my understanding of. The way that clearinghouses kind of work at a basic level. So the way that these things go is that they're actually several brokerages that are self clearing, meaning that they own their own clearing houses.
  • [00:24:36] But even with this, that's still another part of the organization that has to authorize the transfer of money. So when there's a frenzy of trading and the volume of orders really increase it by a huge order of magnitude in a short period of time. I can see it from the brokerages perspective in that they want to be able to actually meet the orders that are coming in and they simply can't keep up with the demands that are being placed on them during times of extreme volatility.
  • [00:25:04] So I do see that that's one side of it. But to be honest, it still bothers me that you and I, as individual investors, we lost the ability to make our own decisions regarding certain stocks. So if I had wanted to short game stop then fine, you know, I'm okay with a margin requirement based on the nature of shorting, but halting a long position.
  • [00:25:29] Seems like it's kind of crossing a line because I can't even just own that for the long-term if I wanted to, but again, I can see both sides of this situation. Brokers want to avoid market manipulation, but at the same, on the other side of the coin, it's like, they're also receiving money from institutions who they are allowing to make trades.
  • [00:25:54] So that's another thing. And. This has also come to light. Is that the way that brokerages get compensated is coming under more scrutiny now, which I think is ultimately a good thing for the individual investor. For example, a broker like a Charles Schwab, they can afford to cut normal stock trade commissions to $0.
  • [00:26:15] Because if you look at the financial statements of Charles Schwab, which we did in a prior episode of this show, they only derive about 8% of their revenue from. Transaction fees. You know, they, they also do wealth management. They do financial advice. They do a bunch of other things that earn the money. Now the situation is very different for broker like Robin hood.
  • [00:26:38] So let's talk about that for a minute. Robin hood is a very popular app and I have friends who use it. I want to be fair. And first say that personally, I think it is the most beautiful and user-friendly investing app that I have ever seen. Schwab, Vanguard, fidelity, et cetera. They all need to step their game up when it comes to user experience.
  • [00:27:05] Because the apps, they look kind of dated compared to what Robin hood has put out. It just feels so beautiful. When you look at Robin hood compared to logging onto something, like, especially like a Vanguard, like, Oh man, Vanguard. If you log into their website, it's just like, Oh man, you guys really need to just update your website, please.
  • [00:27:27] It's just a little bit hard to look at this compared to modern website design. But anyway, let's talk about what I take issue with the problem to me is that Robin hood. Has built itself entirely off of the proposition of free trades for individual investors. Now, that is an amazing thing. I actually applaud that mission.
  • [00:27:49] I think it's excellent. I've talked before on the show. How I believe that it's never been a better time to be an investor and in part that's because. We effectively have no barriers to entry. As far as commissions, we can buy and sell stock when we want and not pay an arm and a leg to a broker to execute for us.
  • [00:28:10] That is incredible. And I love that. I love that mission, but we have to think about what are the mechanics behind this? How is this actually possible? How is Robinhood letting me download the app? Trade stocks, buy stocks for the term. And they're not charging me for it. Like how do they stay in business?
  • [00:28:29] Right. And it's been said before that if you're not paying for a product, then you are the product. And I think that that rings true in this situation too, with Robin hood investors. So Robin hood, they make money in a couple of different ways. One of the ways that they make money is through loans and, and making money off of cash balances, that kind of thing.
  • [00:28:54]Based on the little that I know about that side of it, but they also make money by prioritizing market orders for certain large institutional customers. Huh, this is something that's called payment for order flow or P F O F payments for order flow. And what that does is it puts the broker in somewhat of a conflict of interests.
  • [00:29:17] I think with many of the people that it serves. Because essentially the big funds with more money, they get a more advantageous price when they're buying or selling. So they're getting access to faster data. Then you and I are on our apps. They're getting access to more preferable trades basically. And in the case of stocks like GameStop, There are the ones who are actually able to cover their positions or buy and sell.
  • [00:29:49] Whereas retail investors are basically locked out and they're given that preference because they're paying the brokers for the right to do that. So that's a way that Robin hood makes money and they're actually under scrutiny now. By the securities and exchange commission because of this whole kind of conflict of interest thing.
  • [00:30:09] I mean, you can kind of see how, you know, it might be okay, but it might not, you know, it just depends on which side you're looking at. I think so in any case, it's something to certainly be aware of as an individual investor because. Free investing is not free. I'll just, I'll just leave it at, leave that at that, but it's not surprising that other brokers likely do this because of course there's money involved.
  • [00:30:38] But the main thing that bothers me really about Robin hood is not so much even just that. It's their history of failure to execute in times of volatility. And it's not just recently back in March of 2020 Robin hood had. Major issues during the days when the market was coming down significantly. And I think maybe they're just a company going through some growing pains.
  • [00:31:07] I think that Robin hood has a lot of amazing potential. They certainly been able to design a beautiful app. They've been able to make investing attractive to a whole new generation of investors, which is absolutely amazing. I absolutely love that. And I stand behind that mission. But I do. I do see some problems with how they're executing it.
  • [00:31:29] And to me at the end of the day, as an individual investor, when you're looking at a broker, what do you want the broker to? Do you want the broker to execute your orders for you? Right? You say, buy, go buy it. You say, sell, go sell it. That's what they should do. They should do it accurately. And they should do it promptly.
  • [00:31:49] And that to me is a number one job of a broker. They are being entrusted as a steward of my capital. My family's hard earned money and investment dollars is flowing through your hands. So please do what I tell you when I tell you to do it, it's all about execution. And so I'm just not convinced yet of Robin Hood's ability to execute.
  • [00:32:13] During times of distress. And so that's just an aside as to why, although I really do believe, and I love the mission that Robinhood says it has of trying to get more people to invest. And it seems like they're doing. A great job of that. And in some ways, just by their, their user base growing so rapidly, I am concerned about the robustness of the platform.
  • [00:32:38] It's kind of like analyzing a stock, right? Or analyzing a company. You may have a young, fast growing company that looks like it's going to take over the world and everyone wants to pay up for that growth that may work out. But it might not because there's a lot of risks there. Whereas if you have a more stable business and established business, a business that has proven that they can consistently produce cash flows year after year after year after decade after century, in some cases, well, that deserves a premium too.
  • [00:33:08] So I guess what I'm trying to say is be careful who your broker is, and I'm not saying don't use Robin hood, please. Don't please. Don't take. This little rants to mean that I really don't want that to be the message you're hearing here. I just want this to be the message of, please understand how your broker is compensated, understand the risks of your broker, understand the strengths of your broker as well, and just make a well-informed decision for you.
  • [00:33:40] That's what I'm trying to do with my own family. When I make my investments and I urge you to do the same. So with all this market volatility going on. All these crazy things happening. Just remember that, you know, you are you're, you're in control, you're in control of your money. You're in control of your money.
  • [00:33:59] You are responsible for your money. No matter what stocks people are talking about. Buy this, sell that no matter what's going on in the market, remember that you have the power as individual investor to allocate your capital as you see fit. So make that decision with prudence, make it with. With thought put into it and things will ultimately work out.
  • [00:34:23] I do believe that they will just think about the risks and that's, that's really our job as investors is to understand and account for risks. So those are my thoughts on what's going on with the market with. Robin hood with GameStop, with all these things going on. So I hope that you enjoy that. I hope you certainly learn something from it.
  • [00:34:44] Hope you got something out of that as well as learn something about GameStop the company and the stock as well. So again, Eric, thank you for emailing. For your suggestion. I appreciate that. If you want to reach out to me, you can email me at Alex at Stock Stories, podcast.com, or you can find me on social media @stockstoryteller
  • [00:35:07] that's @stockstoryteller. And so with that, I'm going to close out this episode. But thank you so much for listening next week. We're going to be diving right back into the companies, right back into the S&P 500. And we're going to be talking about an international snack food giant, but that's a story for another day.
  • [00:35:28] Next time on Stock Stories.
  • [00:35:52] Intro Music: the
  • [00:35:52] Alex Mason: information presented here on Stock Stories is for informational education, entertainment purposes. You and you alone are responsible for your investment and financial decisions. Please consult inappropriate tax legal or financial advisor that can analyze your specific situation in the context of your goals and circumstances.

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