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PulteGroup (PHM) - Building For The First Time Home Owner

by Alex Mason | Companies, Episodes

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Mental Details
  • D.R. Horton and Lennar aren’t the only games in town when it comes to home building. PulteGroup is another serious competitor that is gaining a foothold in the first time home buyer market. After the Great Recession, management has made some interesting decisions to try to move the company forward.
  • In today's episode we cover the history, business model, financials, and future outlook of PulteGroup.

Transcript:

  • Alex Mason: Do you remember the story? I told at the beginning of the Dr. Horton episode about how my wife and I, we were in Texas and we came across a brand new subdivision and we went and checked out some homes. Well, during the first stop of the day, it was on a Saturday morning. We came upon a nice looking single family model home built by this company called Centex.
  • [00:00:25] And I had never heard of Centex before, but you know, we checked it out. So me and my family, we walked through the front door and to our left in what looked like a garage was an office set up there. There were brochures on tables, a map of the community hanging up on one of the walls and a television hung on another wall that showed peaceful scenes of things like happy families enjoying their lives in different homes.
  • [00:00:52] So one of the representatives invited us to look around. So we started walking through the floor plan. It was pretty nice. The downstairs, it had nice finishes and various places like the kitchen and the study, but the floor plan just didn't really captivate my wife and I, or the rest of the family for that matter.
  • [00:01:11] Now, walking upstairs though, we were really pleasantly surprised. There was this large loft area. It was furnished nicely with the couch, various tables, chairs, and the core, and it was designed to showcase how the space could be. A flexible relaxing space and a work from home space. Now adjacent to this room were a couple of different bedrooms.
  • [00:01:34] Then there was a bathroom dedicated laundry room, and that's one of the things I remember most about this home, how nice the upstairs floor plan was. The other thing that I really remember about this experience was how busy the home was. I mean, we, weren't the only family coming to check out the house that morning.
  • [00:01:53] In fact walking through that house felt a little bit like a traffic jam because there were several families at once walking through the floor plan, trying to see everything just like we were. So there were a lot of people trying to buy homes. And aside from thinking about if this was the one for us, I couldn't help.
  • [00:02:12] But think, I wonder what company made this house who was responsible for everything that I was seeing. Find out today. On stock stories.
  • [00:02:25] All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. All right. Welcome. Welcome to the stock stories podcast. My name is Alex Mason, and I am your host and stock storyteller on this show. We decode the business behind the stock in order to help you make better investing decisions. And we also learn about things like mental models and investing principles in order to compliment stock analysis.
  • [00:03:20] But today we are going to focus on the stories. We're going to focus on the companies. One of the goals of this show, if you're new to this show, is that we're going through the entire S&P 500. That's right. We're studying every component of the S&P and we've gone through about a hundred of those companies so far over the years, and I'm really excited.
  • [00:03:42] I'm going to keep going. Of course. And I'm so excited that you're here with me on this journey to learn about these companies. So we can expand our database, expand our mental database of companies that we know about companies that might be worthy of further research. And even companies that we can invest in and make some money.
  • [00:04:02] So that's the purpose of this show is to help you with that process. So thanks for joining me on this journey. Now today, we're going to be talking about another home builder. We've been talking about a couple of home builders in the past several weeks. We talked about with value investor TV. That was a fun series of episodes.
  • [00:04:23] And we also talked about Dr. Horton. But today, I want to look at yet another competitor in the space and other S&P 500 company today. We're going to talk about PulteGroup.
  • [00:04:37] Today, we're going to be talking about Pulte group, ticker symbol, P H M. Now let's set the stage really quick. What is this company? What do they do? Well PulteGroup is one of America's largest home builders. They're right up there with and Dr. Horton. And PulteGroup group builds tens of thousands of new homes in the United States every year.
  • [00:05:11] Like their competitors, they operate in dozens of markets. They're all across the country. So what makes Pulte different? How are they like and different from some of their peers that we've already discussed on the show? Well, let's find out first, we'll take a look at how this whole thing got started.
  • [00:05:32]Bill Pulte was a teenager in Detroit, in the middle of the 20th century. And this was a young man who had an aptitude for physical work. He was driven to make things. And when he attended high school between his sophomore and junior year of high school, he apprenticed with a local carpenter. And through that apprenticeship, he learned how to work with wood.
  • [00:05:55] Learn some building and construction skills. Now, when bill turned 18, he decided to start out on an ambitious project. He decided that he was going to build a house. Can you believe that just 18 years old? And he said, you know what, I'm going to build the house. That's a lot of ambition right there. Now it's something he hadn't done before, but he felt like it was something that he was just meant to do.
  • [00:06:22] So what did Bill do? He gathered up a few friends. He ended up finding a plot of land near the Detroit city airport. And he began buying construction materials, him and his friends talked about what they were going to do, how the house should look and how they're going to build it. And then little by little, they started building first, the foundation, then the frames before they knew it, they had a home that was finished.
  • [00:06:51] And then bill ended up finding a buyer for the home. He was able to sell it for $10,000 and it was such a big deal. It even made the local paper in the town, the headline of the newspaper article read boy Bill's $10,000 home and actually saw a clipping of what the house looked like. And it looked like a pretty decent home.
  • [00:07:15] It even had a chimney and everything. So bill Pulte was off to the races. In the home building industry at the tender age of just 18 years old, he was ready to go. And all of this happened back in the year, 1950, just outside Detroit, Michigan.
  • [00:07:35]all
  • [00:07:36] right now that he had his first home built, he thought, okay, well I can do this again. He decided to expand and start building homes for more people. So throughout the next several years, he worked on built and sold custom homes for several people in the greater Detroit area. And he went and did this for several years.
  • [00:07:58] He did this throughout his early twenties and mid twenties, but after six years of doing this informally, he decided to get a little bit more serious. He incorporated as bill Pulte, Inc. And his company was officially born. Now building custom homes was nice, but bill wanted to do more. What if I could do a whole subdivision?
  • [00:08:22] He thought that's when the idea was born for a place called Concord Green, bill Pulte found a plot of land in the place called Bloomfield township, which is also located in Michigan. And this is a small area on the north side of Detroit. And I checked and yep. This neighborhood indeed exists. Bill wanted to move on from just these high-end homes to a more standard approach.
  • [00:08:50] He wanted to use a common set of floor plans to begin building his houses at scale because he realized that if he was doing custom everything, it would take him forever to be able to build homes for people, because they would say, well, I want this, I want that. Use this material and not that material, you know, it's all very nice and he's able to charge a lot of money for this, but in order to actually expand a big company, Bill realized he was going to have to use some kind of standard set of floor plans.
  • [00:09:21] And then of course allow the buyer to change some things, to customize it to a certain degree, but he knew he needed to do this in order to scale his business. So that's what he did. He started out with a round. Five or so different floor plans. And he built 49 homes in that first subdivision. And then he set his sights on neighboring areas to build on.
  • [00:09:45] Now, after Concord green, he built other subdivisions throughout the 1960s. And these are places called Nantucket green, Bennington Green, Greenwich Green. The list goes on and on. Now this guy really had a thing for naming subdivisions. The word green in it right now, a quick aside about houses in America.
  • [00:10:07] Back in these days, remember we're talking about post-World war II America here. Businesses were booming and the middle-class, especially the white middle-class families were moving to the suburbs in droves. So the homes of this era that Pulte built. They sold for around 30,000 to $38,000. And they're between 2020 600 square feet.
  • [00:10:34] These were considered huge homes back in the day. So in 1973, for example, the average house only had about 1600 square feet. That was it. So this guy was building super big properties all the way back in the night, 1860s. Just to give you some context there.
  • [00:10:53]Now continuing throughout the 1960s, Pulte continued to drive forward with ambition to become a bigger builder and build his company. He expanded into other markets like Chicago and Atlanta, and eventually he took his company public in 1969. So that was a major turning point. And going public was a big deal because home building is a type of industry that requires a lot of capital.
  • [00:11:22] You need money to buy your lumber, to buy your concrete, to buy your steel. So going public meant that people were buying shares of his company that went into his pocket as the owner. And he then used that money to reinvest in the business in order to expand into other markets. So this was a key turning point.
  • [00:11:42] For Pultes company. Now, around this time they made their first acquisition and it was of a company called American builders, Inc. And American builders was focused on the first time home buyer market. So they were diversifying a little bit around this point. One of the innovations that the company produced in the 1970s was the invention of the Quadro minium.
  • [00:12:07] Now the name didn't really stick, which I'm sure you're probably thankful for, but essentially these were buildings that had four condo units attached together. So Pulte was experimenting with different types of construction techniques, different types of. Products. And he was always working to improve his business.
  • [00:12:30]At this point, the business was really growing to become a national builder. By the late 1980s, they had a presence in 12 states. One interesting move that management made around this time was to begin buying thrift banks. Well, what is that? What is a thrift bank? A thrift bank. It's a type of bank, also known as a savings and loan.
  • [00:12:53] And what they do is they specialize in providing savings accounts for customers and originating home mortgages. So they're different from larger commercial banks, something like a J.P. Morgan chase or Goldman Sachs, because focus heavily on home mortgages and not necessarily lending money to large businesses or doing those types of deals.
  • [00:13:15] And this type of bank was created in the 1930s as a way to help facilitate home ownership throughout the country. And. They ended up playing a really big role in helping people buy homes throughout the next several decades. The savings and loan bank was a fixture in the American financial landscape.
  • [00:13:34] Now Pulte bought up five sets, thrift banks in Houston, Texas. And through those acquisitions, he was able to form first Heights bank. Now, why would he do this? What's the point? Well, mortgages and new home sales go hand in hand. So it made perfect sense for this growing builder to ally itself, with a natural source of financing, a bank system, specializing in home loans.
  • [00:14:02]In the 1990s Pulte group kept expanding in spite of the housing recession that plagued the earlier part of this period. Now, in fact, they became the largest builder in America, and then they lost their title a few times, but they kept gaining that title back again, though, because they kept buying other builders and becoming a bigger and bigger company through acquisitions.
  • [00:14:25] Some of these acquisitions were of companies called the Del Webb And DiVosta now like their competitors PulteGroup prospered during this period in the late nineties and early to mid two thousands. This was the era of cheap credit. And you may have heard the term liar loans. This is where banks would give home mortgages to.
  • [00:14:47] Pretty much anybody who had a job. Well, anybody who said they had a job, it was a crazy period, but yeah, PulteGroup had an amazing year in 2006. For example, they delivered over 40,000 homes that year and they raked in over $14.3 billion in revenue.
  • [00:15:07]Then 2008 happened and the bottom fell out, credit, dried up the banks. They weren't lending anymore. And so customers weren't buying people didn't want to buy any houses, let alone build new ones, which were more expensive. Now that $14.3 billion in revenue, just a few years earlier, shriveled to just $4 billion by 2009.
  • [00:15:32] The company lost over $1 billion that year. And they eliminated their dividend. The company also reacted by conserving a lot of cash because they were like, well, we need to weather. The storm times were really bad. They had almost $2 billion in cash in oh nine. And this was up significantly from just 500 million that they had in their accounts just a few years prior.
  • [00:15:57] So another big step for Pulte group during this period was their merger with. A company called Centex Centex was another large builder that focused on the first time home buyer. So they had affordable new construction homes. Now, one thing that I think management did here was really smart instead of paying cash for the transaction PulteGroup management wisely commenced the merger as an all stock transaction.
  • [00:16:23] Now this meant that the original shareholders of both companies would get combined stock in the resulting MERS company. You got it. So keep in mind, this isn't always a 50, 50 split. It's not like send texture holders, get the same amount as the PulteGroup shareholders. It just depends on the nature of the deal.
  • [00:16:43] Now, in this case, Pulte shareholders ended up owning 68% of the combined company. Whereas the Centex shareholders, they own the other 32%. Now, the reason that happened is because of the certain makeup of the equity and the debt of the two respective companies. Because think about it. If I am a company and I have a billion dollars in cash and no debt, and I want to buy your company and you have $500 million in cash and $20 billion in debt.
  • [00:17:18] Well, I have most of the equity, right? I'm bringing more equity to the table than you. Because you have a ton of debt on your balance sheet. So if we were to merge and form one company together, that merger would have to be based on the proportional equity that we're each bringing to the table. So that's the reason why it's not always a 50, 50 split in a merger like this.
  • [00:17:41] Now I think that this was a wise move by PulteGroup because not only did the company conserve their cash during a really tumultuous period, but they expanded their market share with another large builder. now eventually times did improve the U S economy began to make this recovery, even though it was a slow recovery, it still began to get better. And people started buying homes again with the syntax acquisition, PulteGroup though, still diversified across their customer base, began to focus a little bit more on the first time home buyer.
  • [00:18:16] For example, let me just share an example with you. In Chicago St. Louis and San Antonio, the Centex brand introduced a new line of homes called the independent series. Now, the purpose of this series was to provide homes that were so affordable. They would attract renters to transition to home ownership.
  • [00:18:37] Now, rental rates had generally been increasing for years at this point, even through the recession really. And home mortgage rates also during this period had kept falling. So it was making home buying look even more attractive. Now, for example, in San Antonio, Texas Centex was selling homes starting as low as $105,000 where the buyer put just three and a half percent down on the house.
  • [00:19:06] They were getting a monthly payment as low as $775 a month. Now, keep in mind, this was back in 2012, but still that's a cheap house, definitely cheap house in America. Now, another thing that happened during this period was that PulteGroup stock started taking off around this time. In fact, in 2012 PHM stock was the best performing stock in the entire S&P 500 rising over 189% in a single year.
  • [00:19:38] Okay. So this brings us to today. We've looked at the history now, what is PulteGroup like now? What does the business do? Well PulteGroup is doing what it's been doing for decades. They're building homes. They haven't really deviated a lot in their business model. Over time. They're different from some of their competitors that we discussed, like Dr.
  • [00:20:00] Horton and Lennar and that they don't seem focused at all on developing any rental properties or apartments. Virtually all of their revenue comes from home building. Now they're present in 23 states now. And then over the past few years, they've been delivering around 24,000 homes per year. So they're cranking them out.
  • [00:20:21] Now, remember there's an under supply of new homes in America right now. So they're able to do this because there's so much demand for new construction homes. Now they have several brands under their PulteGroup umbrella. Of course, they have the Pulte homes brand, which was the original brand they started with.
  • [00:20:40] They've also got DiVosta, Del Webb, John Wieland and American west. And then of course, Centex, which I mentioned a few minutes ago now about 85% of the homes that they sell are single family detached homes. So similar in style to the types of homes that bill Pulte started out with, they're just larger now and more modern.
  • [00:21:04] Now they typically sell for between 200,000 and $750,000. So Pulte group's focus is really on the first-time home buyer and the active adult buyer. They don't really go too much into super luxury homes, something like a toll brothers house, but they do have homes in a big range. So whether you're just trying to buy a home for your very first, for the first time.
  • [00:21:32] Or you want to move up or you're an empty nester. They probably have a home that they're trying to market to you. Now, another thing to note about the big picture here is that the home building market is highly fragmented. I want to reiterate this now. In fact, only 15% of the home sales in America are for new homes at all, as opposed to the resale market.
  • [00:21:55] So they're competing with existing houses, existing neighborhoods that were built by other builders long ago, and in the market as a whole, PulteGroup only accounts for just 3% of the nation's market share just 3%. And they're one of the nation's biggest builders. So that tells you how fragmented this industry really is.
  • [00:22:15] Now let's remember the macro economic factors that are making home builders so much money right now. Okay. There's a very limited supply of homes in America, still in 2020, there were only about 1 million single family home builds that were started. Now, if we compare this back in time to 2005, which was the peak of the last market cycle, there were 1.7 million single family homes built in that year.
  • [00:22:43] So we still have a long way to go before we hit those levels of supply in the market. Now also consider that cheap mortgages are still out there. And my generation millennials and younger gen Z probably don't understand just how precedented this is in American history. I mean, as I'm recording this it's 2021.
  • [00:23:06] 30 year fixed rate mortgages are going for as low as 2.3%. I went ahead and just looked up some mortgage rates, 2.3%. Are you kidding me? Like my grandfather would be jumping at these rates if he was still in the market. So mortgage rates are historically still super low, and that is fueling a massive demand for new home purchases.
  • [00:23:29] Okay. Bringing it back to PulteGroup. Their focus has traditionally been across the entire spectrum of home buyers. Now they transitioned a bit to focus more on the first time home buyer. It's the largest group that they're selling to now. They want to be the company that introduces families to home ownership.
  • [00:23:49] Now another thing is that in 2018, they had 45,000 lots that were developed specifically for this demographic by 2020. That number increased to nearly 75,000. So even in just the past few years, they've really been expanding their targeting to the first time home buyer.
  • [00:24:11] now
  • [00:24:12] I want to talk a little bit about options and lots, because this is the heart and soul of how home builders actually begin their business is not just about building the house, but it's about buying the pieces of land and then developing it to get ready to build on. So a quick note about the lots that are controlled by this company.
  • [00:24:35] You've heard me talk a lot about in the Dr. Horton and Lennar episodes, how lots are developed and how that whole thing works. So I won't get into that here, but back in the day. So pre recession, it was common for home builders to own the majority of the land outright. Now, this can make sense from a business perspective, but it can also introduce some risk if there's a major crash in property values.
  • [00:25:01] So most of Pulte groups land pre-recession was owned outright, but now their split is about 50% owned and about 50% option. Remember an option is that they don't actually own the land. They just control it. They have an option contract on the land, so they have the right to develop on the land, but they don't necessarily hold the land as far as having full liability for it.
  • [00:25:30] Now, this is an intentional decision. The CEO of Pulte group addressed this in the latest 10 K annual report. Now, one thing I looked at when discovering this was I went back to Dr. Horton and Lennar and compare these metrics and found that each of those companies, they have about a third of their lots controlled by options.
  • [00:25:51] So from this perspective, I think PulteGroup has a less risky pipeline of properties than their competitors.
  • [00:25:58]Okay, let's get into the financials. Now we've got to look at the numbers in order to understand how this business is actually developing and see if it has any potential as an investment. So for the sake of looking at the trends over time, We're going to be comparing the years, 2013 to 2020. So seven year period, just to get a picture of how the business has been doing in the past several years.
  • [00:26:26] So first we'll look at the income statement and we'll look at sales. Now in 2013, PulteGroup had about five and a half billion dollars in sales. This nearly doubled to 11 billion in 2020. So that's a 10% annual growth rate in revenue. Which is pretty good. That's kind of what I would expect given the boom in housing over the past several years.
  • [00:26:50] So this is good news. Now the net income was two and a half billion and actually went down to 1.4 billion in 2020. Now that seems like a pretty steep drop, right? Like why did that happen if sales were going up so much? Well, it's just really based on the accounting rules and we'll see that the earnings per share also, looks like it went down significantly.
  • [00:27:12] But, you know, what is actually isn't that big of a deal because the cashflow of the business was going up and we'll get to that in just a moment. But first let's talk about the balance sheet. How much money has this company traditionally had in cash? I think cash is very important. If you have cash, you can do stuff.
  • [00:27:32] If you don't have cash. You have to rely on debt and debt. Isn't always available at cheap rates. So in 2013 PulteGroup had one and a half billion dollars in cash. And by 2020, it increases number to two and a half billion. So they've been strengthening their cast position. And I think this is really, really smart.
  • [00:27:52] Now as far as their debt goes, they had about $2 million in long-term debt. In 2013, that number is increased to just under $3 billion in debt. And these numbers that I'm citing here, these aren't all of the liabilities on the balance sheet. I'm just looking at their notes payable. So keep that in mind.
  • [00:28:11] It's not the full picture of liabilities, but it's a good indicator of how much money they actually owe. Now, as far as the cashflow statement, let's talk about this for a moment. In 2013, the company was making almost $900 million in operating cashflow. Remember operating cashflow is the amount of money the business is actually generating.
  • [00:28:32] That's actually changing hands. That's actually being produced by the business. In 2020, it went from 900 million all the way up to $1.7 billion. Now the growth rate in the operating cashflow I noticed is almost identical to the growth rate in sales. So this is a good sign. The business is generating real cash during this boom period.
  • [00:28:55] Now, as far as investing cashflow, the company has been investing cautiously. They've been investing a little bit more than they did in the past. In 2013, they put about 45 million into the business, which wasn't that much. And then in 2020, they put over a hundred million into the business. Now, keep in mind, this is for things like buying land and developing new subdivisions.
  • [00:29:19] That's where this money is going. Now, if you look at the financing cash flow, this is where all the dividends come from. All of the debt, all of the share buybacks. We can find all the information in this section of the cashflow statement. Now in 2013, there was over $600 million going out of the business in financing cash flow.
  • [00:29:41] And in 2020, it was just about 300 million. And the reason why this is. Is back in 2013, there was still a lot of de-leveraging going on. The company was really trying to pull free from. The bad times of the recession. So they were doing a lot of de-leveraging of their balance sheet, which AKA paying off debt.
  • [00:30:04] And as well as some other things, and 2013 was actually the first year that they reinstated their dividend post recession. Now, fast forward to 2020, they've been doing things like buying back shares of their stock. They've increased their dividend a little bit. Now let's talk about dividends actually. In fact, In 2013, the company only paid out $38 million in dividends, very small, but in 2020, that number has increased to $130 million.
  • [00:30:31] Now on a per share basis, this went from 15 cents per share to 50 cents per share. Now that's a growth rate of over 18% annually. So they've really been paying out a lot of money to shareholders over this timeframe. And then as far as the shares outstanding, remember, we want to make sure that we keep the profit as owners.
  • [00:30:52] We don't want to be diluted too much by the company just issuing shares out into the market. So in 2013, the company had over 380 million shares. Outstanding. This number has decreased substantially to the point where now in 2020, there's only 265 million shares outstanding. So the company has been doing a really good job.
  • [00:31:13] At taking down that share account. So this, I think will be a solid component of total shareholder return going forward, just based on the fact that the company is just chipping away at their share count as a way of returning cash to shareholders.
  • [00:31:30] So now that we've looked at the finances, we've looked at the business overview, we've looked at the history, the story of the business itself. What have we learned about PulteGroup? Well, we've learned a few things. So over the decades, Pulte group, like their competitors, they've capitalized successfully on America's move to the suburbs.
  • [00:31:51] America's moved to the suburbs by building houses. Now, since the financial crisis, they're more prudent with leverage than they used to be. And also how they structure their land control, which is mainly through options. And I see that as a good intentional move by management to make sure that they're reducing their primary risk, which is basically holding the bag of two months land when prices crash.
  • [00:32:17] Another thing we've learned about Pulte group is that by buying other companies over time, they've gradually shifted their portfolio to cater to first time home buyers. So this is another thing that's interesting. Now, as far as the stock itself, it trades for around $55 per share, or about 10 times earnings right now.
  • [00:32:37] As I'm recording this. Now the company pays a small dividend, but they've really been focused mainly on reducing that share count over time through share buybacks. So that's been their focus. Now, if interest rates stay low for the foreseeable future, I would say, I think the stock is probably fairly valued times have been good.
  • [00:32:56] And there's still a lot of demand in the housing market for new homes and the builders. They just can't build them fast enough. They're getting snapped up left and right. So as long as interest rates stay low, I think that this is going to continue, but if they don't stay low, obviously earnings and revenues are going to get hit hard.
  • [00:33:14] So keep in mind that this is still a company in a very cyclical industry, but I like the things that management has done, they seem a little bit more prudent than some of their competitors. And that's something that I really like.
  • [00:33:29] All right. Thank you so much for listening to this episode of stock stories. I am your host and stock storyteller, Alex Mason, if you enjoy the show, the best thing you can do to help me out is just to share it with another investor who needs to hear this. That would be really appreciated. Our catalog is growing.
  • [00:33:55] We've studied well over 100 companies at this point. So thank you in advance for sharing the show. Also, don't forget to follow on social media @stockstoryteller and check out the website, stock storyteller.com in order to get a free summary of the most popular episode of this show so far, which is called 100 stock investing lessons.
  • [00:34:17] If you haven't listened to that it's episode 100. Go ahead and check that out. And again, you can get that at stockstoryteller.com. Just enter your email in order to get that. And you'll find that in your inbox. Now next week, we have a mental model episode for you, and we're going to focus on how things can change with size, but that's a story for another day.
  • [00:34:40] See you next time on stock stories.
  • [00:34:43] Legal Disclaimer: the information presented here on stock stories is for informational educational and entertainment purposes. Only you and you alone are responsible for your investment and financial decisions. Please consult an appropriate tax legal or financial advisor that can analyze your specific situation in the context of your goals and circumstances.

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